PIRAMIDION - Archeology & Geology

The U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada are working to expand cross-boundary work on important issues such as; climate change, water availability, avian influenza, and bio-monitoring.

This partnership will further streamline sharing of research from both countries and provide a framework to further benefit the relationships and sharing of science.

The USGS will formalize this collaboration with Environment Canada by signing a Memorandum of Understanding on May 30.

 The media are invited to attend this milestone event which will lay the ground work for collaboration across borders. 

Please RSVP to Jennifer LaVista (contact above).

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MD

Reporters:   Water-use photos are available at: http://oh.water.usgs.gov/Consumptive_Water-Use.htm

Do you ever wonder how much of the water that we remove from the Great Lakes for use in everyday products such as food, ethanol, household chemicals or paper products, is not returned?   Or what type of use is most likely to cause these losses?

Information about these and other types of   “consumptive” water use for the Great Lakes basin can be found in a new U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report that will be used by water-resource managers and planners in the Great Lakes as they develop policies to encourage efficient and sustainable water use.

“We found that irrigation and livestock had the largest losses compared with total water withdrawn from the Great Lakes basin,” said Kimberly Shaffer, hydrologist with the USGS and author of the report. “Of the total water withdrawn for irrigation, 70-100 percent was lost to the basin.”

The authors examined seven consumptive water-use categories: domestic and public supply, industrial, electric power, irrigation, livestock, commercial, and mining. Consumptive water use is water that is evaporated, transpired, incorporated into products or crops, consumed by humans or livestock, or otherwise removed from the immediate environment. It is usually reported as a percentage of the amount of water withdrawn. 

This study is relevant to the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin Sustainable Water Resources Agreement, an agreement between eight states and two Canadian provinces that would prohibit major diversions of water beyond counties bordering the basin.

“We are pleased that the USGS has compiled this consumptive water use information in one report. It will be a great resource for water-resources managers and planners in the Great Lakes,” said David Naftzger, Executive Director of the Council of Great Lakes Governors. “There can be a large range in consumptive use numbers in a single water-use category, and the USGS has presented the information in a way that provides an improved understanding of how water is being used and consumed in the region.”

For this report USGS compiled, mapped, graphed, and statistically analyzed consumptive water use numbers from more than 100 sources as a starting point for facility managers, water managers, and scientists in determining the amount of water consumed in seven water-use categories: domestic and public supply, industrial, electric power, irrigation, livestock, commercial, and mining.

For comparison purposes, consumptive use information for basins and states that have climates similar to the Great Lakes basin are included in the report.  Methods for computing and estimating consumptive use are also presented, as is an extensive bibliography.

A fact sheet titled “Consumptive Water Use in the Great Lakes Basin,” by Kimberly H. Shaffer, is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3032/

The full report titled “Consumptive Water-Use Coefficients for the Great Lakes Basin and Climatically Similar Areas,” by Kimberly H. Shaffer and Donna L. Runkle, is available at:  http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5197   

The fact sheet and report are among a series of products by the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Water Availability and Use Program for the Great Lakes Basin, a program designed to gain a clearer understanding of water-use, land-use, and climatic trends in our Nation’s water resources. More information is available at:  http://water.usgs.gov/wateravailability/greatlakes

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MD

Climate change and sea level rise are threatening
wetlands and impacting nearby species habitat, water quality, recreation sites
and more. Effective wetland conservation programs are needed that consider
climate change. U.S.
Geological Survey scientists are studying related impacts to wetlands and will
discuss their research and collaborative conservation projects at this meeting.

Tuesday, May 27

Global Change and the Function and Distribution of
Wetlands - Symposium

Impacts of Sea level Rise on Coastal Wetlands:
Will Elevated Carbon Dioxide Make a Difference?
Global changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate
are expected to affect coastal wetlands and their ability to keep up with
rising sea level. Multiple factors may interact to alter the vertical accretion
of coastal marshes under different global change scenarios, and new data has
been acquired showing how carbon dioxide enrichment may increase soil expansion
by stimulating plant production. (Karen McKee, USGS)

Wetlands as Sentinels of Climate Change: Effects on
Goods and Services - Symposium

Coastal
Wetlands as Sentinels of Climate Change
Coastal
wetlands are critical habitat for many species and perform important ecosystem services.
These services include providing an avenue for human recreation, improving
water quality by filtering of sediments and nutrients, dissipating the energy
and reducing the erosive effects of coastal storms, and recycling and
exchanging nutrients within and among estuarine habitats. As sea level rise is
now accelerating above historic rates due to global warming, coastal wetlands
will become increasingly vulnerable to submergence if wetland vertical
development can not keep pace. (Donald R. Cahoon, USGS)

Vulnerability of Central North American Wetlands
to Climate Change
The Prairie Pothole Region of
North America contains 5 - 8 million wetlands, provides critical habitat for
continental waterfowl populations, and provides valuable ecosystem services for
the region and nation. The USGS developed computer simulation models, which use
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections for future
temperature and precipitation change in this region over the next century.
These models suggest that many of the wetlands in this region will be drier and
lose their ability to provide critical ecosystem services. These scenarios also
suggest that the future best landscapes for maintaining biodiversity, critical
ecosystem services and habitat for waterfowl populations will shift eastward from
the east central Dakotas and Canadian prairies to the wetter climates of
western Minnesota and Iowa, areas where most wetlands have been lost because of
agricultural activities. (Glenn Guntenspergen, USGS)

Potential
Effects of Climate Change on Forested Wetlands in the Lower Mississippi
Valley
The
Lower Mississippi
Valley is the nation’s largest
floodplain and the forest and wetland ecosystems of the Lower Mississippi
Valley provide critically
important ecosystem services. Climate is a large-scale agent of change
controlling dominant drivers of ecosystem structure, processes, and services.
The effects of predicted climate change on hydrology and land cover and the
cascading impacts on ecosystem services in the Lower Mississippi
Valley are largely
unknown. This is a significant gap in our knowledge base directly affecting
resource management, conservation, and ecosystem restoration programs of federal,
state and local governments. (Stephen Faulkner, USGS)

Wednesday, May 28

** Fieldtrip: Restored Tidal Freshwater Wetlands of
the Anacostia River
in Washington, D.C.

During
the first half of the 20th century, most of the freshwater tidal
marshes along the Anacostia
River were removed by
mandated dredging, filling, erosional scour, etc. Over the past 15 years,
efforts to restore the Anacostia wetlands have taken place through seven
separate projects. This tour is designed to visit five of the Anacostia’s
most prominent freshwater tidal marsh reconstruction sites. Ordinary field
footwear will suffice. (Dick
Hammerschlag and Cairn Krafft, USGS)

Disassembly of Coastal Ecosystems in the Face of
Global Change - Symposium

Effects of Climate Change
on Wetland Sustainability and Restoration
As
sea levels rise and human alterations of the world’s coasts continue, further understanding
of coastal ecosystems and responses to sea level rise is needed to better
manage and restore these critical coastal habitats. Wetlands differ in their
vulnerability to sea level rise because of regional and local controls on
wetland surface elevation. Wetlands build vertically through the accumulation
of both mineral and organic matter. Should sea level rise exceed the threshold
for vertical soil development, vegetation will become stressed and eventually
die and the wetland will convert to open water. (Donald R. Calhoon, USGS)

Wetland Associations
of Coastal Marsh Birds throughout North America:
Implications for Climate Change Impacts
Although
present throughout the world, coastal marshes occupy a very small amount of the
surface area of the globe. The number and size of coastal marshes in North America have declined over the past 200 years and
continue to decline due to coastal development. Many of the species that depend
on these coastal marshes are already uncommon and projected increases in sea
level may increase the probability of eradication. Two shorebirds, which are
most likely to be negatively affected by rising sea levels, were examined in
coastal ecosystems in North America. (Courtney
Conway, USGS)

Thursday, May 29

** Wetlands Policy in a Changing Environment - Plenary
Session

Deputy
Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior Lynn Scarlett and USGS Chief
Scientist for Global Change Research Virginia Burkett are among the speakers
during this session. Scarlett will present on the topics of federal lands,
water and climate change and Burkett will present on wetlands and climate change.

The USDA Conservation Effects Assessment Program:
Wetlands Component - Symposium

Conservation Practice
Effects on Wetland Ecosystem Services in the Lower Mississippi
Valley
The
forest, wetland and aquatic ecosystems that dominated the Lower Mississippi
Valley prior to European
colonization provided an array of ecosystem services. The conversion of these
natural areas to row-crop agriculture has resulted in landscape-scale
alteration of water, biologic and chemical interactions that are unprecedented in
both scale and scope. The objective of conservation programs, such as the
Wetlands Reserve Program and Conservation Reserve Program, is to restore and
protect the functions and values of wetlands. The goal of the Conservation
Effects Assessment Project Wetlands program is to develop a scientific
methodology to assess the effects of conservation practices on ecosystem
services provided by wetlands. (Stephen Faulkner, USGS)

Characterization of Prairie
Pothole Catchment Soils: Implications for Delivery of Ecosystem Services
Implementation
of USDA conservation programs has resulted in the restoration of more than 5
million acres of wetland and grassland habitats in the U.S. portion of the Prairie Pothole
Region. Two apparent benefits of conservation programs are a reduction in soil
erosion and an overall improvement in soil quality. However, little work has
been conducted to document changes in soil characteristics that occur when
catchments (uplands and wetlands) of Prairie Pothole wetlands in agricultural production
are restored as part of conservation programs. To address this need, the USGS
and the USDA collaboratively conducted a survey of 270 wetland catchments in
the Prairie Pothole Region. Comparisons were made about soil characteristics
among restored, agricultural (cropped) and native grassland catchments. (Raymond Finocchiaro, USGS)

The Prairie Pothole
Regional Assessment: Results of a Survey to Estimate Ecosystem Services Derived
from USDA Conservation Reserve and Wetlands
Reserve Program
Lands
Restoration of wetland habitats through
these conservation programs is perceived to provide various ecosystem services
such as increasing plant diversity, providing wildlife habitat, improving soil
and water quality, and sequestering carbon. To help quantify and evaluate
environmental benefits achieved by these programs, the USDA initiated the
National Assessment component of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project.
The goal of the Prairie Pothole Region assessment by the USGS was to develop
approaches to estimate ecological services provided by conservation practices and
to use these approaches to quantify changes from USDA funded conservation
programs. (Robert
Gleason, USGS)

Effects
of Conservation Programs on Amphibian Species Richness of Seasonal Wetlands in
the Prairie Pothole Region
The
Prairie Pothole Region of the United
States has been subjected to extensive
anthropogenic land-use change that has altered habits from their natural state.
In order to minimize environmental degradation while promoting sustainable
agriculture, the USDA has implemented various conservation programs throughout
the Prairie Pothole Region. Surveys of amphibians were conducted in an effort
to quantify the effects of conservation programs on biodiversity. Similar numbers
of amphibian species were found using restored and natural wetlands across the
region. However, farmed wetlands consistently displayed lower species richness,
especially in the southeastern portion of the Prairie Pothole Region. Findings
suggest that restoration efforts are providing suitable habitat for most
amphibian species using seasonal wetlands. (Caleb Balas, USGS)

Advancing Floristic Quality Assessment in Wetland Plant
Assemblages - Symposium

The
Effects of Natural Climate Variation on Floristic Quality Assessments of
Wetland Plant Communities
Wetland
plant communities in the Glaciated Plains of North America
undergo species composition fluctuations as the region’s dynamic climate cycles
between periods of drought and heavy rain. The dynamic environmental conditions
of prairie wetlands have made development of biotic indicators of wetland
integrity problematic. Long-term monitoring was conducted on wetland plant
communities at the Cottonwood Lake Study Area, a prairie wetland complex on the
Missouri Coteau in east-central North
Dakota. (David Mushet, USGS)

Friday, May 30

** Coastal Habitat Restoration and Climate Change:
Priorities for the Future - Panel

This panel aims to broaden the restoration community’s and
policymakers’ understanding of climate change impacts on coastal habitat
restoration and protection. As coastal impacts related to climate change
increase, agencies and organizations that restore habitat must take into
account a range of future scenarios, such as higher sea level and warmer ocean
temperatures, and be strategic about funding and locating new projects. In
addition, a dialogue on restoration techniques and methodologies, taking into
account resiliency and the effects of climate change on habitat restoration
projects, needs to occur. Panelists will provide insight into the
prioritization of coastal habitat restoration in the face of climate change.
Panelists will discuss current knowledge, research gaps and needs, and ideas
for new criteria for planning and monitoring coastal habitat restoration
projects that take climate change into account. The discussion will also help
inform Estuary Restoration Act agencies on how best to prioritize habitat
restoration of estuaries nationwide. (Virginia Burkett, USGS)

For more
information about USGS presentations visit the Society of Wetland Scientists
conference web site.

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MD

Ever wonder exactly where the Hayward Fault is? Three new educational publications will show you just where to look. A field trip guidebook, online virtual tour, and fact sheet aimed at increasing awareness of the area’s most hazardous and urbanized fault, are available online, courtesy of the scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey.

The 140^th anniversary of the 1868 Hayward earthquake this October 21^st marks an important milestone: the past 5 large earthquakes on the Hayward Fault have been on average about 140-years apart, so a repeat of this powerful earthquake could happen at any moment. A recent report indicates that the Hayward Fault is the most likely fault to produce a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the greater Bay Area in the next 30-years.

“Few Bay Area residents know about the significant impact of the 1868 Hayward earthquake and these new publications will make it easier for all of us to understand and to be better prepared for its repeat,” said Tom Brocher, author of the fact sheet and a senior seismologist at the USGS. “These products would be useful for Bay Area educators seeking information on local earthquakes to add to their curriculum.”

The first of these new USGS publications is a fact sheet, The Hayward Fault-Is it due for a repeat of the powerful 1868 earthquake?  This 4-page pamphlet, written for the public, provides a description of the earthquake, describes how building practices were changed after the earthquake, discusses the hazards posed by the Hayward Fault, and provides information about how to prepare for its expected repeat. This fact sheet is available online at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3019/.

The second publication is a guidebook to visiting the Hayward Fault using public transit called Where’s the Hayward Fault? A Green Guide to the Hayward Fault.  Nine separate field trips are available at locations starting at Point Pinole on San Pablo Bay at the northern end of the fault to Mission San Jose in Fremont near the southern end of the fault, and points in between at Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro, and Hayward.  Each trip contains a map, photographs, and directions on how to access the fault using mass transit. Touring the fault is a surefire way to understand just how close it lies to our communities. The field trip guidebook is available online at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1135/.

The third USGS publication is a “virtual tour” of the Hayward Fault in which users can explore the impact of 1868 Hayward earthquake using free Google Earth^TM software. The virtual tour of the Bay Area’s most urbanized fault includes the location of the Hayward Fault, historic photographs of damage produced by the 1868 quake, and locations of soils known to be most prone to damage from liquefaction, and many other features. The tour is available online at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/1868virtualtour

For other online resources about the Hayward Fault, please visit: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/1868

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MD

Editors’ notes: A telephone conference call is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. PDT for a brief presentation and opportunity for questions with the principal authors. Call 605-990-0100, and enter conference code 1009678#

B-roll animations and high-resolution images are available at http://urbanearth.usgs.gov/shakeout. 

Scientists today unveiled a hypothetical Scenario describing how a magnitude 7.8 Southern California earthquake -similar to the recent earthquake in China- would impact the region, causing loss of lives and massive damage to infrastructure, including critical transportation, power, and water systems.

In the Scenario, the earthquake would kill 1800 people, injure 50,000, cause $200 billion in damage, and have long-lasting social and economic consequences. This is the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean, and is the scientific framework for what will be the largest earthquake preparedness drill in California history, scheduled for November 13, 2008.

The November preparedness exercise, “Golden Guardian ‘08,” will test the ability of emergency responders to deal with the impact of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California, and is being jointly organized by the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Office of Homeland Security. The Golden Guardian exercise will occur during a week-long series of public events planned for the “Great Southern California ShakeOut.” A June 4^th kick-off event is planned for the “ShakeOut” to help communities plan to respond to the risks highlighted in the Scenario.

The scientific report describing the ShakeOut Scenario, jointly published by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Geological Survey (CGS), will be released today during a Congressional hearing in Washington, D.C. The House Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, led by Chairman Jim Costa (D-CA), will hold an oversight hearing on USGS efforts to prepare for future earthquakes, at 10:00 a.m. EDT in Room 1324, Longworth House Office Building 

Although imaginary, the Shakeout Scenario is based on scientists’ best predictions of what would actually occur during and after a major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault.

The Scenario outlines a hypothetical earthquake in which:

• The strongest shaking and greatest damage is near the stretch of the San Andreas Fault that extends through the fastest growing areas of Southern California, including the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley.
• At least 10 million people will be exposed to heavy shaking. California’s efforts at mitigation have concentrated on life safety and have been largely successful. Thus, in spite of the large numbers of people in highly shaken areas, deaths are estimated at only 1,800.
• Building types known to be vulnerable to damage and collapse, do indeed sustain major damage. All un-reinforced masonry buildings within 15 miles of the San Andreas Fault are completely destroyed. Those that are not retrofitted kill many occupants. Many other older building types without retrofitting contribute to over $33 billion in damage to buildings.
• The fault offsets all lifelines crossing into Southern California at Cajon Pass (Interstate 15), San Gorgonio Pass (Interstate 10) and along Route 14, including pipelines, power lines, roads, railways, telecommunications and aqueducts.
• Strong shaking continues in downtown Los Angeles for 55 seconds - nearly 8 times longer than in the Northridge Earthquake
• The prolonged, strong shaking heavily damages and sometimes collapses hundreds of old brick buildings, thousands of older commercial and industrial concrete buildings, many wood-frame buildings, and even a few, high-rise steel buildings. Over 600,000 buildings suffer at least some damage that causes tens of thousands of injuries and hundreds of deaths, and leaves many thousands of people without homes or jobs.
• Fire doubles the fatalities and economic losses. Around Southern California, there will be 1,600 fires started large enough to warrant a 911 call, and some fires merge into conflagrations that burn hundreds of city blocks. Assuming no Santa Ana winds, the models still indicate a further $65 billion in direct losses and $22 billion in indirect losses from the fires.
• Nearly two thirds of the hospital beds are non-functional in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. At the same time, 50,000 people will seek treatment at emergency rooms.
• Thanks to a $6 billion investment in seismic safety, the State highway system fares well. However, although collapse is avoided, some bridges are non-functional so that much of the highway is not passable on the day of the event. The long duration of shaking takes a greater toll on bridges and overpasses under the jurisdiction of cities and counties where the retrofitting processes are not complete or have not begun. 
• The largest long-term economic disruption comes from damage to the water distribution system. Damage to this system will be so extensive that some areas will have to replace the whole system, and some buildings will be without water for as long as 6 months. The direct and indirect business interruption costs attributed to the lack of water will be $50 billion.
• Most of the damage is predictable and much is preventable. Individuals can protect themselves and help their community by:

- Storing more water than they already have

- Keeping a fire extinguisher and knowing how to use it.

- Securing their space. This means securing building contents from flying around and reinforcing a building they own to the most current standards.

“The planned emergency drill is underpinned by the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean on the ground,” said Dr. Lucile Jones, chief scientist for U.S. Geological Survey’s Southern California Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. “We know this science will help state and local agencies develop comprehensive emergency-response plans that will help us avoid the worst impacts of a major quake.”

The ShakeOut Scenario is the product of an interdisciplinary collaboration of over 300 scientists, engineers, and other experts from several agencies, including the USGS, the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, California Office of Emergency Services and Seismic Safety Commission.

To create the Scenario, geologists determined the amount of potential motion on the part of the San Andreas Fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture, a 200-mile long section from the Salton Sea in the Coachella Valley to just south of Gorman. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking. Engineers and building professionals used the models of ground shaking to estimate damage to the built environment. And from these damages, social scientists evaluated emergency response, casualties, and the impact on our economy and society.

The following scientists and engineers led the development of individual sections of the ShakeOut Scenario. They were responsible for bringing together the appropriate team of experts to analyze that aspect of the earthquake, leading the investigations and ensuring that the final document was written. Each of them can speak to the goals of the Scenario, the main results and the details of their expertise. They can be reached by contacting the USGS.

Dr. Lucy Jones, Seismologist, USGS, Chief Scientist

Dr. Kenneth Hudnut, Geologist, USGS, Geologic setting and ground motion prediction

Dr. Keith Porter, Engineer, University of Colorado, Physical Damages

Dr. Daniel Ponti, Geologist, USGS, Secondary Hazards

Ms. Hope Seligson, Engineer, MMI Engineering, HAZUS and loss estimation

Dr. Kimberley Shoaf, Public Health Scientist, UCLA School of Public Health, Mortality and morbidity

Dr. Michael Reichle, Chief Seismologist (ret.), California Geological Survey, Lifelines Dr. Dennis S. Mileti, Sociologist, California Seismic Safety Commission, Emergency Response

Dr. James Goltz, Social Psychologist, California Office of Emergency Services, Emergency Response Dr. Richard Bernknopf, Economist, USGS, Economics

Dr. Anne Wein, Decision Scientist, USGS, Economics

Mr. Dale A. Cox, Project Manager, USGS

A copy of the full technical report, The ShakeOut Scenario, is available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150.

A non-technical summary narrative of the Scenario is online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/. Paper copies of the narrative are available by request.

High resolution images, and a computer animation showing the earthquake rupture and its waves of energy spreading across Southern California are online at http://urbanearth.usgs.gov/shakeout.

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MD